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Forecast for XAU/USD: Gold churns out records

Forecast for XAU/USD: Gold churns out records

Fundamental forecast for gold for today

Precious metal climbed too high

It’s done! What gold bugs had been dreaming about for decades happened: the price has reached a level of $2,000 per ounce. The weakness of the US dollar, the fall of the 10-year U.S. Bond yield to unbelievable minus 1%, and unstoppable growth of ETF reserves did their work. Meanwhile, gold bugs grew much older: according to JP Morgan’s research, the precious metal is usually bought by aged investors, while young traders prefer Bitcoin or high-tech stocks.
Many may find it surprising that gold is growing amidst the rally of US stock indexes. That often happens during recessions, though: enormous volumes of central banks’ cheap liquidity allow investors to build up long positions in risky and reliable assets. What’s more, the market prefers precious metals when it’s unsure about GDP’s recovery.

S&P 500’s and gold’s evolutions

Source: Trading Economics
Even if gold climbed high, there are still a lot of bullish forecasts: Goldman Sachs believes that the prices may go up to $2300 per ounce because investors are looking for a new reserve currency; RBC Capital Markets projects a level of $3,000.
XAU/USD bulls may have succeeded because the recession didn’t follow the 2007-2009 scenario. Then, the Fed’s monetary stimuli were enough for getting the economy back to the trend; now, it’s unclear. Then, the USD was growing as the US GDP’s recovery rate was faster than its global peers’ one; now, it’s falling amidst the economic divergence of growth. Then, the idea that inflation would speed up amidst increased money supply failed; now, it’s still alive. The difference between then and now allows us to say that gold hasn’t stop rallying yet.
The best scenario for gold would be a W-shape recovery of the US economy. It implies extending monetary and fiscal stimuli, further weakening the USD, and a drop in real US bond yields. However, a V-shape recovery of GDP will allow XAU/USD quotes to grow too. A long-term downtrend of the USD index is doubtless. At the same time, the Fed makes it clear that it’s ready to tolerate high inflation, which will raise the bond market rates.

Gold and expected inflation dynamics

Source: Wall Street Journal
The second coronavirus wave in Europe is the main factor in the development of the bullish scenario for gold. Under this scenario, the euro will fall, the USD index will grow and will probably continue growing as the divergence of economic growth will benefit the USA. That scenario is unlikely to happen. So, hold your long positions formed at $1820-1825 per ounce and build them up during retracements. XAU/USD may correct on the Congress’s approval of a new fiscal relief package and strong stats on the US labor market.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/forecast-for-xauusd-gold-churns-out-records/ ?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

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submitted by GiuliettaShop to Popify [link] [comments]

Norbit Gambit with large sum

I need to transfer about a little over 300K USD soon to Canada.
Currently I live in the US and still have my RBC account from when I lived in Canada. The US dollars are currently in a US bank account.
My plan is to open a RBC US cross border account (no annual fee for first year if I get their account/credit card bundle) and transfer it to my RBC account in Canada which has a US dollar savings account.
Then I'll open a RBC direct investing account where I'll perform the Norbit Gambit method using DLR.U/DLR ETF.
It seems pretty straightforward, but I was wondering if there are better options. eg. Using a forex trading service here in the US and using that to exchange it to CAD and then sending CAD over directly to my RBC account in Canada. I'm trying to avoid having to open a credit card I have no intention to use (though the card will be opened using my Canadian credit history so I'm not too concerned about the drop in credit score after closing the card later in the year).
I don't expect to be doing this kinda transfer again anytime soon. So any accounts I open will be closed fairly quickly.

Would be great to hear if anyone has tried the forex route or any other method I haven't mentioned. With the amount I'm transferring, any significant drop in exchange rates results in a few thousand dollars lost (hence why I can't just use normal transfer methods since RBC rates suck).
submitted by sh4d3 to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

My credit card plan

Hello! So during school I was lazy for the most part regarding my banking, and now that I've graduated and I have a real job I want to sort out my financials and make sure I am getting the most out of my spending. Currently I have 2 credit cards, an RBC Signature Rewards and Scotia's Scene CC with credit limits close to $10K each. I am planning to cancel my RBC rewards because I'm in the process of switching out to TD and I'm not going to pay the $40 annual fee to keep the card, and as for my Scene it gets me good points but I don't got to Cineplex often and they keep jacking up the Scene redemption rates.
My monthly expenses are roughly as follows:
This is what I plan to hold (upon approval of course):
Simplii Cash Back Visa - Use exclusively for 4% on restaurants (I'll have to open an account with them tho, which is fine because I can churn and get $200 for opening one)
Tangerine MC - 2% back on the recurring payments + maybe gas? (IF I get approved that is)
Rogers WE MasterCard - $0 annual fee, 1.75% on everything, 2% on my Fido bill (in case I can't get Tangerine), 4% on Forex when I travel and online purchases + WE benefits. I don't make $80K but I feel like my combined household limit is $150K but I need to double check this.
And my fallback option if I can't get the Rogers WE is to go for the SimplyCash and get 1.25% on the rest of my purchases. I saw somewhere that the Amex Cobalt was good but I got confused on how the redemption works and I don't think be positive enough over the $120 annual fee for it to be worth it. Also I was exploring the TD and Scotiabank offers and they didn't seem to entice me as much as the Rogers WE, and I can get TD's annual fee's waved because I can put $5K liquid as my emergency funds in a No Limit account and avoid banking/CC fees. I could do the same for Scotia with their new account, but I am wary of them because I've heard stories on here about them being poor to deal with.
Thanks for looking and I'll appreciate any advice on cards that I may have missed!
submitted by fatcowxlivee to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

I am a Canadian who earns his income in USD. I want to put it all in a US bank account. Does this sound like a bad idea?

I am a Canadian by nationality and currently live in Canada. My only affiliation with the US is that I have a social security number from when I worked there a few years ago on an exchange visa.
I've recently started earning my income online in USD and want to keep it all in a US online bank (Ally.com). Eventually I also want to get a USD credit card since most of my expenses are online in the US.
I do have a family member in the US whose address I can use for these applications.
Does this sound like a bad idea? Can anything go wrong?
submitted by irs_so_slow to personalfinance [link] [comments]

Accepting Payments / Contracting from US

Hi /personalfinancecanada
I'm looking at accepting a contract from the US for some IT work. It would be in the range of 40-70k USD, but am unaware how to properly receive/declare/tax it. I would be doing this contract with another colleague (sub-contractor or co-worker, whatever would make the most sense). Pay would be on a bi-weekly amount.
EDIT: Thanks so much for all the responses! Will be digesting this information over the next few days! Any recommendations for readings? Or should I go straight to an accountant for advice?
Thanks!
submitted by VJain8905 to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

Cashing out company purchase plan stocks

Hello, Our company is a US listed company and there is a program to put a percentage of your earnings to a discounted stock purchase plan. They just moved the program to Fidelity and I need to setup my banking information for withdrawals from the program. I have the option to sell shares with the money going straight to my chequing account as CAD (2.5% exchange fee goes to Fidelity), or a free transaction in USD. I have RBC chequing so the USD would appear as CAD converted at the RBC rate (which looked about 2.25% off of normal forex rates). Also I could shift the shares for free to my Direct Investing account, and sell in RBC for CAD or USD.
What one of the 4 options (Sell Fidelity in USD, sell Fidelity in CAD, sell direct investing in USD, sell direct investing in CAD) is the least fee heavy? I know there are all around the same, but with a transfer of $10,000-20,000 the fees add up! Thanks
submitted by camerondtaylor to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

Dollar drops as rate cut bets mount, weak inflation halts euro's rally

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 51%. (I'm a bot)
LONDON - The U.S. dollar weakened to its lowest since mid-April on Tuesday as investors bet the Federal Reserve could soon cut interest rates, while concerns about global growth encouraged investors to buy the safe-haven yen.
The euro rose on the back of dollar weakness but lower-than-expected euro zone inflation in May brought the single currency's rally to a halt.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to its lowest since September 2017 overnight after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said a rate cut "May be warranted soon" given weak U.S. inflation and the threat global trade tensions pose to economic growth.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, slipped to 96.995, its weakest since April 18, before recovering as the euro reversed its gains.
"We still see the policy background in the euro zone leaving the euro as the anti-dollar," said Adam Cole, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, predicting euro/dollar could fall to $1.10 before finishing the year at $1.14 - still firmly within its current trading range.
The Australian dollar was little changed, at $0.6977, after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25%, as expected.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: dollar#1 euro#2 cut#3 rate#4 U.S.#5
Post found in /Economics.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Best way to transfer CAD to USD?

I will soon find myself in a position where I will be transferred to a US office for work, for at least 6 months. I will still be paid by the Canadian parent company, in CAD. I'm trying to think if the best way to exchange funds between the two currencies.
My understanding is that the best rate will be a forex, but that is somewhat impractical and requires me physically returning to Canada.
Second option, I have a USD account with RBC so can simply transfer cash from my CAD accounts, but am then subject to the bank's exchange rate.
Finally, I want these funds to eventually end up in an American bank, so I can take advantage of their superior credit card offerings and start building credit in the US.
Does anyone have any suggestions for the best way to go about this?
Thanks in advance.
submitted by try_this_again to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

Which CC is better for my use case?

I spend anywhere from 500-1000 USD a month. I currently use amazon chase CC with 1% cashback and no forex fees. Would it make sense to pay with a RBC USD credit card and not getting currency transaction rate but I lose cash back. What would be a good canadian CC for this amount of USD spend a month?
submitted by voodoodoodoopoopoo to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

Least costly way to transfer US to CAD?

I am US citizen but I am a minority owner (9%) in a rental property in Canada. I have a Canadian savings account.
Several of the owners, including myself, have agreed to buy out one of the other minority owners whose experiencing some health issues and I need to transfer 10,000 to the Canadian savings account to fund my share of the down payment.
However, the Forex fees are either outrageous and/or the exchange rates terrible. On the sums involved, it's not insignificant (hundreds of dollars). Any advice on transferring funds between the countries?
My local branch of my US bank is little help as they can barely figure out how to successfully wire transfer to CA. My Canadian bank is RBC.
submitted by sidsixseven to personalfinance [link] [comments]

US Citizen living/working in Canada for 1 year. Is losing $0.02 cents per dollar on a transfer an acceptable rate?

I need to continue to transfer money into my US banking accounts to pay off student loans, credit cards etc. I'll make somewhere around $130-140k in Canadian dollars over the course of the year.
I'm usually transferring over $7,000 per month losing $140 in the transfer process in fees alone. This isn't including the Canadian dollar losing value to the USD.
Is paying $0.02 through my RBC bank an acceptable rate for this exchange?
I've looked at FOREX accounts, but would rather not have money tied into them as they all require a minimum balance
submitted by bvwilson58 to personalfinance [link] [comments]

FOREX-Euro hits 7-month low on possible 2-tier ECB bank charges

This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 64%.
ECB seen cutting deposit rate by as much as 30 bps next week.
Little over a week before the ECB's next policy meeting, numerous alternatives are open, from snapping up the bonds of towns and regions to introducing a two-tier penalty charge on banks that park money with the ECB, officials said.
"The way the market is reading it is that if the ECB manages to set up some sort of tiering arrangement, it would make it easier to cut rates, because it could set that up as being less penal on the banks," said RBC currency strategist Adam Cole, in London.
Stephen Jen, who runs London-based hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners, said he reckoned the ECB would cut the deposit rate by at least 30 basis points next week, to -0.5 percent.
The consensus from a Reuters poll issued on Wednesday is that the ECB will cut the deposit rate further to -0.30 percent from -0.20 percent now.
Policymakers are discussing the split-level rate - a contested step that would impose a higher charge on banks depending on the amount they deposit with the ECB - in order to soften the impact of any further deposit rate cut on banks.
Summary Source | FAQ | Theory | Feedback | Top five keywords: ECB#1 rate#2 cut#3 bank#4 deposit#5
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The 5 MOST PROFITABLE Savings Accounts of 2019 - YouTube

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